Soybean futures closed the Turnaround Tuesday session with gains of a penny to 7 1/2 cents. The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView is 22 1/4 cents under May futures. Since the turn of the calendar year spot basis has strengthened from minus 49 cents. The national average bean basis on Jan 1 2020 was minus 58 3/4 cents but had only strengthened to minus 44 cents by mid-April. New crop basis is 50 cents under November, compared to -67 1/2 cents at this time in 2020.
The products were mixed on Tuesday, as meal closed $5.40 to $6.90 in the red. That subtracted about 16 cents/bu from the beans. BO futures ended the session with triple digit gains of at least 138 points. The 158 point gain for May added approximately 18 cents of crush value to the beans.
Analysts estimate the NOPA crush report will show between 165 mbu and 189.6 mbu of soybeans crushed in March. The average of estimates is to see a 179.2 mbu crush, which would be down from 181.37 mbu crushed in March 2020. The average estimate for BO stocks is 1.822b lbs.
Chinese Customs data showed March bean imports totaled 7.77 MMT, with +5 from U.S. March ’20 soy imports were 6.37 MMT. The EU Commission reported accumulated soybean imports of 11.5 MMT through 4/11, which compares to 11.27 MMT of beans through the same point in 2019/20.
May 21 Soybeans closed at $13.89 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents,
Jul 21 Soybeans closed at $13.84 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $13.67 1/4, up 8 cents,
Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $12.51 1/4, up 1 cent,
New Crop Cash was $12.01 1/3, up 1 cents,
